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Pinecrest Deep Dive: Q1 2016 Absorption Rates

As a luxury real estate expert in South Florida’s premier communities, I have naturally developed a strong command of the evolving trends powered by personal experience and data analysis. We’re now into the second quarter of 2016 and as clients look ahead to Summer, my outlook for the Pinecrest market has been updated. Here’s what I’m seeing for today’s featured neighborhood:

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES CLOSED INVENTORY

Pinecrest (Under 3,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq FtAbsoprtion Rate
Last 1-6 months23$787,041$782,000$33110.18 month supply
Last 6-12 months29$722,647$705,000$2939 month supply
Based on 39 active sales

Pinecrest (Between 3,000 sq ft - 6,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq Ft

Absorption Rate

Last 1-6 months50$1,230,811$1,083,750$293

10.3 month supply

Last 6-12 months59$1,112,436$1,056,200$278

9.5 month supply

Based on 86 active sales

Pinecrest (Over 6,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq Ft

Absorption Rate

Last 1-6 months15$2,726,133$2,600,000$377

27.6 month supply

Last 6-12 months24$2,700,458$2,601,000$378

21.2 month supply

Based on 69 active sales

For the purposes of this blog, I have divided up the single family home category by property size. We’ll start with properties under 3,000 sq ft, then move to 3,000-6,000 sq ft range, and finally to 6,000 sq ft and over. Across all three data sets, we find the absorption rate story to be straightforward. Generally, price per square foot and sales price have both increased in the prior 6 months and supply has followed.

Taking a closer look at the under 3,000 sq ft home range; the average sale price has risen from $722,647 to $787,041 from the previous 6-12 months to the last 1-6 months. The median sale price has also risen in that time period from $705,000 to $782,000. The average price per sq ft is up from $293 to $331. Overall, the increased absorption rate is now holding at 10.18 month supply, meaning that the average house in this category is taking approximately one month longer to sell than it was during the preceding six-month period. The total volume of sales was down in the last six months from the prior six months.

Moving to properties within the 3,000-6,000 sq ft range, we can see a similar positive trend in terms of absolute and per-square-foot sales prices, but again, with a slightly lower number of total transactions. We again look at the absorption rate, which is nearly one month higher, indicating that the pace of new listings to the market is outpacing the rate of closed sales.

Finally, the data for our larger homes over 6,000 sq ft displayed the most alarming change in the market. in absorption rate growth. Pinecrest is known for larger lots offering tons of space for growing families looking to take advantage of top tier schools, and many of these families are building or buying very large houses that fit into this segment. Prices usually are a lagging indicator as to a change in the market. In this case, we see that prices are basically stagnant from the previous six-month period to the last six month period. We do see that the total volume of sales is down significantly (37.5%) and the absorption rate is up 30% to a 27.6-month supply of housing. With sharp market changes like this occurring, pricing is already being affected as sellers and buyers are both realizing that in this segment of housing in Pinecrest, the market is shifting faster than other segments, into a buyer’s market.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on all of the metrics discussed in this article, as we move forward into 2016. As a market expert, I look forward to sharing opportunities with you as you learn more about this coveted neighborhood. For more Pinecrest insights from the Ben Moss Quarterly Market update, please navigate to the Neighborhoods page of my website. I look forward to preparing your custom report.

My business has been built on cultivating long-term relationships. Please let me know if I can be of assistance to you and your family, whether renting, buying or selling.

You can reach me directly at 305-793-4783 or Ben@BenMossGroup.com.

Ben specializes in South Florida luxury real estate in the cities and neighborhoods of Coral Gables, South Miami, Pinecrest, Coconut Grove, Miami Beach, South Beach, and Key Biscayne. His track record of success includes significant sales and record breaking transactions in Miami-Dade and Broward County. As a thought leader in South Florida luxury real estate, Ben is regularly featured in local media sharing insights from his comprehensive real estate market reports. Ben also runs the Sports & Entertainment division for ONE Sotheby’s International Realty, having represented hundreds of athletes and entertainers with their real estate needs nationwide. Experience the power of passion aligning with data centered knowledge - reach out to Ben about your upcoming real estate transaction.