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Ben Moss Quarterly Market Update: Reviewing Absorption Rates In Coral Gables

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As a luxury real estate expert in South Florida’s premier communities, I have naturally developed a strong command of the evolving trends through both personal experience and through data analysis. We’re now heading into the second quarter of 2016 and as the seasons change, my outlook has changed particularly in the Coral Gables waterfront home category.


Coral Gables - waterfront (Under 3,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq FtAbsoprtion Rate
Last 1-6 months3$1,783,333$2,100,000$64110 month supply
Last 6-12 months5$1,639,500$1,587,500$6307.5 month supply
Based on 5 active sales

Coral Gables - waterfront (Between 3,000 sq ft - 6,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq FtAbsorption Rate
Last 1-6 months9$2,121,111$1,950,000$51222.7 month supply
Last 6-12 months16$2,463,750$2,512,500$58716.3 month supply

Based on 34 active sales

Coral Gables - waterfront (Over 6,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq Ft

Absorption Rate

Last 1-6 months7$8,194,643$8,675,000$776

29.1 month supply

Last 6-12 months14$5,745,714$5,100,000$650

19.4 month supply

Based on 34 active sales

Coral Gables - non-waterfront (Under 3,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq FtAbsorption Rate
Last 1-6 months132$661,854$650,200$3366 month supply
Last 6-12 months202$692,686$672,500$3435.8 month supply
Based on 164 active sales

Coral Gables - non-waterfront (Between 3,000 sq ft - 6,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq FtAbsorption Rate
Last 1-6 months60$1,578,466$1,487,500$40311.1 month supply
Last 6-12 months57$1,715,539$1,590,000$40811.4 month supply
Based on 111 active sales

Coral Gables - non-waterfront (Over 6,000 sq ft)

# of TransactionsAverage Sold PriceMedian Sold PriceAverage $ / Sq FtAbsorption Rate
Last 1-6 months13$3,858,942$3,400,000$51812.5 month supply
Last 6-12 months11$3,299,091$3,600,000$45513.5 month supply
Based on 27 active sales

Based on my deep dive into market conditions in the past 6 months, the number of waterfront sales are down across all estate size ranges. When compared to the prior 6 months, the volume of sales is about half of what it was during the preceding 6 months. Fewer overall sales means that as more houses come onto the market, the average days on market will increase. Even though home prices are flat or even up in certain submarkets in the last 6 months, prices are a lagging indicator when it comes to the cycle shift that we are starting now. The cycle starts with sales volume going down, and the natural consequence of that fact is the number of active listings increases. Finally, motivated sellers will have to start cutting prices, ultimately leading to falling prices.

I’m not predicting a crash, but I am seeing the start of the next buyer’s market in the Gables. What that means is that buyers can afford to be patient as they’ll have more and more options to choose from. Sellers on the other hand, will have to accept the facts of this new market cycle and therefore price their houses to sell. It’s important to note that the non-waterfront market is not changing as quickly, but I predict that the same market conditions will begin to materialized in this segment within the year. We have already witnessed this happening in the under 3,000-square foot submarket so I expect to see this bleed into different estate size ranges soon.

For more Coral Gables insights from the Ben Moss Quarterly Market Update, please navigate to the Neighborhoods page of my website. I look forward to working with you on a custom report as you investigate luxury real estate opportunities in the current cycle.

My business has been built on cultivating long-term relationships. Please let me know if I can be of assistance to you and your family, whether renting, buying or selling.

You can reach me directly at 305-793-4783 or Ben@BenMossGroup.com.

Ben specializes in South Florida luxury real estate in the cities and neighborhoods of Coral Gables, South Miami, Pinecrest, Coconut Grove, Miami Beach, South Beach, and Key Biscayne. His track record of success includes significant sales and record breaking transactions in Miami-Dade and Broward County. As a thought leader in South Florida luxury real estate, Ben is regularly featured in local media sharing insights from his comprehensive real estate market reports. Ben also runs the Sports & Entertainment division for ONE Sotheby’s International Realty, having represented hundreds of athletes and entertainers with their real estate needs nationwide. Experience the power of passion aligning with data centered knowledge - reach out to Ben about your upcoming real estate transaction.